I've had my mucus plug since September 30. The contractions are Braxton Hicks. On October 7 I had an ultrasound; they said I should give birth by the 15th. But for the past two days the baby has been pressing on my perineum and sending shooting pains through my lower back.
The mucus plug doesn't always come away at the same time as the waters. For me it came away for exactly a week, and only after that did my waters break.